While the number of people who live past the age of has grown to half a million worldwide over the past several years, there are a few who are living to be or even older. Those who have passed the year mark are referred to as supercentenarians. Jeanne Calment of France is the oldest supercentenarian on record. She had lived years and days at the time of her death, in Statistical modeling examining the extremes of human life shows that a life span of years may be attained.
Many scientists and researchers disagree on the plasticity of old-age mortality. Some forecast a fixed limit to human life span, based on biological forces, such as the inevitable deterioration of cells. Others note that mortality for people in their 80s and 90s has decreased significantly in recent years.
They also argue that proposed caps to human life span have always been broken within an average of 5 years after they were suggested. What both these arguments have in common is uncertainty. Unknown future scientific breakthroughs, and a lack of knowledge regarding the mechanisms of aging, prevent forming definitive conclusions about human life span.
Before , statistical analysis of supercentenarians was limited by age attainment bias , which is the tendency of people of advanced age to exaggerate or round up their age.
Story Source: Materials provided by University of Washington. Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by using Bayesian population projections.
Demographic Research , ; DOI: The 21st century may see a record-breaker. ScienceDaily, 1 July University of Washington.
How long can a person live? Retrieved November 11, from www. But statistically, such extreme events aren't as rare as we may think, asserts a new analysis of In comparison, Even though communicable diseases are on the decline, they remain elevated e. Disease and death will eventually and ultimately strike all of us. And yet they will do so very differently depending on our age, gender, and the part of the world we are born in.
This is why a risk-based approach to public policy makes sense. In short: We need a better and more dynamic model for predicting at a granular level the risks that individuals will be exposed to most at each stage of their lives, wherever they are.
Creating such a data model would be a great endeavor for the new decade. Smith Future Development. The Future Development blog informs and stimulates debate on key development issues. This blog was first launched in September by the World Bank and the Brookings Institution in an effort to hold governments more accountable to poor people and offer solutions to the most prominent development challenges.
Continuing this goal, Future Development was re-launched in January at brookings. For archived content, visit worldbank. Editor's Note: To kick off the Future Development blog in , we present the second in a four-part series on the future of development.
This means that for every 1, individuals who have reached age , we expect approximately of them will have died before their th birthday, and more by age Taken to its logical end point, this pattern suggests only 1 of the 1, would reach age , and only 1 in a million supercentenarians would reach age Even more, such traditional demographic factors as sex and nationality that affect mortality rates also appear to not affect supercentenarians.
But scientists have yet to figure out what factors lead supercentenarians to live as long as they do. Do they benefit from excellent genetics? Or healthy environments? Or some other factor as yet unidentified? They appear to be extraordinary individuals, but the exact reason is unclear. That pattern led us to the second component of our study: projecting how many people will reach age during the 21st century, which ends in the year Using population forecasting methods developed by our research group that are used by the United Nations, we found that large midth-century population growth will likely lead to an orders-of-magnitude increase in the supercentenarian population by Our estimates suggest that about , people will reach age by , give or take about ,
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